New Battle Ground Poll Numbers
Submitted by samc088 on July 31, 2008 - 10:00am.
News and Links
First, everyone needs to make sure they watch the video Mary Lee posted. It is great and could really help her aunt out!
Second, I think that every Friday we should discuss a user submitted topic. I will relay the information from the selected topic to Gen. Clark. So, please shoot me an email with your ideas for tomorrow.
smcspadden@securingamerica.com.
And for today's topic--Quinnipiac has new toss-up state poll numbers.
Florida: Obama: 46, McCain: 44
Ohio: Obama: 46, McCain: 44
Pennsylvania: Obama: 49, McCain: 42
What do we think Obama needs to do to build more stable and substantial leads in these states? It has been a very long time since anyone has become President without winning two out of these three states. I think that it would be beneficial to Obama to make a more direct appeal to independent voters as they will make the difference in those three states.
I would suggest he invite Wes Clark onto his ticket and give him a free hand to stump in those states.
Let's not clutter up yet another blog with the largely irrelevant karma ratings system.
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
sorry if it displeases you Stan, but it's going to be addressed until it stops: equal time - ms in la doesn't like abuse of the ratings system any better than most of us do
in this case, I believe it was just a mistake
I believe it's nothing but an attractive nuisance.
We learn. We change. That's progress. If we don't do that, well, we're GWB.
I have a huge amount of trouble rating- it takes several minutes for it to come out the way I want it to.
I am holding my breath waiting for Obama to show
just how smart he really is by having Wes as
his running mate. Rumors about Kaine being the
one leave me cold- he is about as inexperienced
as BO. Of the two people who could truly add to
the campaign- Hillary and Wes- Hillary seems to
be out. Wes is the only one who meets all of
the criteria Obama needs in a running mate.
Miracles can happen.
DM
I have a huge amount of trouble trying to rate as well. I'm confused about whether you have to click on all four starts if you want to give a comment a 4? I've tried several times to just click on #4 for a 4 rating, and nothing happens except a clock like thing shows up.
I haven't wanted to fool around with it more as I don't rate someone low unfairly. Consequently, I've never rated, and there have been some great ones I would have liked to - as Syb's above recommending that O put Wes on the ticket have him out on the stump.
I'm on an IMac using Safari 1.0.3 so that may be why I can't rate correctly.
Likely you'll need to click on it twice. Safari has always had a bit of trouble with Ajax kinds of code - and that's what Karma is. Same thing sometimes with submitting forms. Sometimes it takes 2 clicks -- once to 'focus' on the button and one to execute the operation.
Click on the 4th star from the left if you want to give someone 4 stars. The "I'm-working-on-it-clock/beachball' thingy is just your machine trying to make up it's mind that it wants to make what you want to happen -- happen. If it doesn't react and show the proper stars right away, click it again.
No one wrote code properly for Safari when it first came out (version 1.0) and Safari didn't handle all kinds of events properly either. In fact, Ajax code was 'born' shortly before or after your version of Safari when it came out in 2004. I'm using version 3.0.4, though, and it's much more stable and robust.
You might consider updating to Safari 1.3.2 if you are running Panther (Mac OS X 10.3.9) or Safari 3.1.2 if you'e running Leopard or Tiger.
Safari for Panther:
http://www.apple.com/support/downloads/safariupdate132.html
Safari for Leopard or Tiger:
http://www.apple.com/safari/download/
Thanks for all the helpful ideas - will try fooling around with rating this evening when I get back to computer. I've got to upgrade my software - haven't in the 3 years I've had the computer and am rather an amateur when it comes to computers, so usually don't notice a big difference - it generally works fine. Plus, I'm on dialup so that slows things down as well.
Went to see Mama Mia this afternoon - loved it - wonderful music, fabulous location, interesting approach to a good story.
I was going to suggest that he stop pissing off 18 million registered democrats, but I guess it is too late for that.
My honest opinion is that McCain will make his VP pick very soon. It will probably be Mitt Romney. Romney, politics aside is competent and charismatic. Together, he and McCain will eat O's lunch in the red states. Then it will come down to the new O democrats in the blue states. I don't personally know a single voter here in MA who is going to vote for Obama.
One thing he can do is parlay his best asset, his speaking ability, in a major national security address, running the whole gamut of the related issues, after conferring with the likes of Wes Clark, Richard Holbrooke, Richard Clarke, and Madeleine Albright.
Obama needs to do something dramatic. He has a natural ceiling at about 50% nationally, it appears. He will already get the voters whose biggie is domestic policy. He needs a breakthrough on the foreign policy/national security front.
Shortie's thoughts pertain, as well.
On a different topic, it wouldn't hurt for him to show some humility. Rather than acting he's already President, he should talk about how complex and difficult the job is but how he is preparing for it and how ready he is to take on the challenges. He will win or lose on the "comfort factor." People will need to feel more comfortable with him.
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
Maybe by a little bit, but a little bit would be all that's needed.
I'm walking out on thin ice here even to broach this subject, but it would help if he's seen as a- or non-racial. In the beginning, I saw him as cosmopolitan and international, not African-American. But he to some extent and his black supporters to a great extent kind of forced the issue.
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
I don't think it would matter if he could manage to break through on national security. I think if he could break the national security barrier, the racial issue wouldn't matter much. Some people would always see it that way, but not a lot and equally on both the pro- and con- sides, I think.
We learn. We change. That's progress. If we don't do that, well, we're GWB.
Stan,
I've got to disagree somewhat with the idea that a major address will cause people to see him in a different light and suddenly flock to his camp. That's the only thing we've seen from him to date. He needs to have a solid base of prior action on which to build his policies yet that is where he's deficient. Whether during the time he served in the Illinois legislature or the couple of years in the US Senate prior to running for President, he simply has a very shallow resume and little to build on. This will likely not be a popular comment but it's my own honest assessment of his qualifications. We've heard relatively little from him outside of his speeches, and they have become background noise that I'd bet many just tune out.
He must connect with people on their level - not his. His positions and policies must be relevant to them, on their level. One sure fire way to accomplish this is to conduct town halls. Take real questions from real people. Have a real-life honest dialog about their concerns and what he would do about it. A grand speech to a large crowd, delivered by reading a teleprompter is way up in the clouds. High flying rhetoric. The voters are down here on the ground and that is where he needs to spend some time.
I pretty much agree, VaDem. After the major speech, he could follow it up with multiple townhalls.
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
maybe the big FP speech later?
Road Blog: Day in Pictures, Iowa
By Obama Road Blog - Jul 31st, 2008 at 10:32 pm EDT
Barack Obama's return to Iowa today was bittersweet. The Senator received a warm welcome from many who remember his visits in 2007, long before the first vote was cast in any of the historic primaries or caucuses of this cycle's nominating contest. But the city was far different today, still in recovery from severe flooding suffered last month.
Hardships faced by the people of Cedar Rapids are only compounded by economic challenges facing all Americans, whether it be increasing job insecurity or higher prices at the gas pump. Barack took some time this morning to meet with officials and residents to see how the federal government can enter into a partnership in the face of such tragedy.
At a town hall in Cedar Rapids, Senator Obama reminded those in attendance of the clear choice we have in this election: To choose a way to move forward or to stick with the policies of the last eight years.
On this day in Iowa, there was no doubt that Americans are ready for something new, whether it be an energy policy that makes sense, or an end to "low road" politics.
It was also clear that the Iowans here felt a sense of ownership and pride in a Presidential campaign that began in VFW halls and high school gymnasiums all across their great state.
photos of Obama with flood victims and from the townhall meeting here:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/obamaroadblog/gG5TVv
Just a quick search - it doesn't appear that the transcript of today's complete townhall speech has been posted yet.
...a big FP speech would be great, before or after the convention
But being with those flood victims was the best thing he could have done now.
And holding a townhall to discuss the economy and energy policy with real people was the best thing he could have done now, more of those in the works.
...and fwiw, Obama personally said before he ever left on his trip (the trip McCain goaded him into) that he had absolutely no expectations that the trip would boost his poll ratings.
frank: A recent USAToday/Gallup poll shows McCain whipping obama in several areas. obama's giant publicity foreign tour seems to have had little or a negative effect, as it shows his weakness in foreign policy. This should be disturbing to all of obama's supporters for the very reason that McCain is probably the worst candidate, running the worst campaign in recorded history. O, with his giant PR machine should be ahead of McCain by 40 points in these battleground states instead of in a statistical tie.
It should be obvious that something with o or his campaign is misfiring and driving people to the other party - and again, one of the weakest candidates possible. One problem I'll tell you right now is that he's so damn arrogant he won't listen to anyone else but Michele. (Ask Wes about that.) I'll leave it up to others to speculate on what it is that is turning people off, but the longer it goes on, the worse it gets. I'm guessing that McCain would wax obama in the general election and if the dems persist in insisiting o's the candidate, they will get what they deserve. Again.
IMHO, for the good of the United States, both parties need someone else running; the country needs real leadership, not another bumbling idiot or someone constructed out of clever PR advertising schemes.
In times of war or peace, democracy requires dialogue, disagreement, and the courage to speak out. And those who do it should not be condemned but be praised." WKC
It's too late to change that now. The only hope is to fix him. That may very well be impossible. But it's the only hope. If he were to be ousted now, we couldn't recover from it in time.
We learn. We change. That's progress. If we don't do that, well, we're GWB.
but until the convention is over, it's not too late. Only in people's minds, not in reality. If it were over, why bother why a sham convention that's a total waste of money the dems don't have?
In times of war or peace, democracy requires dialogue, disagreement, and the courage to speak out. And those who do it should not be condemned but be praised." WKC
But it's too late for it to possibly be an improvement. Dems would look so weak if they did that that we'd never be able to recover in time for the GE.
We learn. We change. That's progress. If we don't do that, well, we're GWB.
In times of war or peace, democracy requires dialogue, disagreement, and the courage to speak out. And those who do it should not be condemned but be praised." WKC
And the final answer basically boiled down to what you said - that going that route would basically hand the election to the GOP and destroy down-ticket races to boot. It would be a financial, logistical, and political nightmare that would be political suicide for anyone who tried and make it happen or benefit from it.
You're right. There would no way to recover in time for the GE - or perhaps ever.
"I am asking you to come together and make sure Barack Obama is our next president. This is a critical mission." - Gen. Wes Clark
Hi Sam:
Here are some key points where I have analyzed this issue:
1) I do not think that poll numbers really mean very much right now:
http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/16095
ANALYSIS: Why I believe that Presidential polls do NOT mean very much right now!
Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on July 16, 2008 - 4:24am.
2) Obama is running into electability issues that I mentioned a long time ago:
http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/15566
John King of CNN explained Hillary's strong swing state electability argument!
Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on May 23, 2008 - 3:32am.
http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/10547
Obama to explore 2008 White House run; EXPERIENCE MATTERS: Look at Bush in 2000!
Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on January 16, 2007 - 5:38pm.
3) Many people are not sold on Obama right now (like how they would probably be with a Democrat with more experience and who they knew more about) as the latest polls very clearly show about him:
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0807/29/ldt.01.html
LOU DOBBS TONIGHT
Polls Show Obama is Failing to Surge Ahead
Aired July 29, 2008 - 19:00 ET
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: "With an unpopular president and a bad economy, this election is not supposed to be close. Asked whether they would rather see a Democrat or a Republican elected president, voters said they prefer a Democrat by 12 points.
But in CNN's latest Poll of Polls, Barack Obama is only five points ahead of John McCain. So far the election looks more like a referendum on Obama than on President Bush. Many voters don't know much about Obama. McCain is trying to fill in the blanks...
SCHNEIDER: McCain's negative strategy is keeping the focus on Obama, by nearly 2-1, voters say they're paying more attention to what kind of president Obama would be than what kind of president McCain would be...
SCHNEIDER: Well, usually in an election it's also a referendum on the status quo. Do people want to continue the status quo or do they want change? Now that referendum we saw in that earlier poll, people clearly want a Democratic president. But they're not sure they want Obama. It has a very unusual election for that reason..."
4) Obama is also having a hard time winning over many of Hillary's strong supporters who think that she lost the primary for all of the wrong reasons as well as Hillary's donors:
http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/16074
ANALYSIS: The reasons why many Hillary supporters are NOT supporting Obama now!
Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on July 13, 2008 - 3:29am.
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Hillary_Donors_obama/2008/07/23/115522.html
Hillary Donors Not Backing Obama
Wednesday, July 23, 2008 12:53 PM
"Of the 311 fundraisers who bundled more than $100,000 in donations for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, only eight are on the list of contributors to Barack Obama’s campaign in June.
Their total for the month: just $19,250.
“The fact that fewer than 3 percent of Clinton’s donors have donated any money directly to Obama in his first month as presumptive nominee is likely to raise the eyebrows of some leaders in the Democratic Party who are hoping to see signs of unity,” the Huffington Post observed..."
If Obama does not put Hillary on the ticket, then I think that he will probably lose the votes, support, and the money of many of her strong supporters and donors!
5) I also think that Obama will probably have a lot of problems with McCain when he is finally forced to debate him and when more people will be paying attention to this election:
http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/15840
Obama first challenged McCain to debate so Obama needs be willing to debate now!
Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on June 19, 2008 - 1:55am.
http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/15340
Obama supporter Jamal Simmons said "Debates are just not his particular forte"
Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on April 22, 2008 - 3:13am.
In conclusion, any event could happen that could be a game changer for either side and we also need to know who the VP candidates are on both sides in this election more than in any previous election in my opinion. That is because of McCain's age and past health problems on the Republican side and that is also because of Obama's inexperience on the Democratic side!
The bottom line in my opinion is that due to all of these factors, it is far too early to accurately predict what will happen in November right now regardless of what any polls say!
Mitch Dworkin
The trend from 1988 - 2004 shows that the GOP candidate tends to under-poll in the summer--with the exception, as you can see below, of the 2000 campaign. In each of the other four years, the Republican candidate had been polling significantly behind the Democrat at this point in the race. Each of those times, however, the Republican improved his position, gaining an average of 15 points relative to the Democrat.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_nobounce_win_and_a_bit_of.php
Why have Obama and the New Democratic Party chose to rehabilitate the Republican Party at a time when it and conservatism has proven to be such a failure? Answer: "Because that's where the money is."
That's why I think we're doomed unless we see some major changes.
We learn. We change. That's progress. If we don't do that, well, we're GWB.
on the CNN Election Center last night!
Gloria Borger leaned toward Obama in her analysis during the primary in my opinion so I definitely do not think that she is biased against Obama right now in her analysis:
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0807/30/ec.01.html
CNN ELECTION CENTER
California Prepared for the Big One?; McCain Campaign Unveils New Attack Ad; The Politics of Soaring Gas Prices; The Debate Over Tobacco Gets Personal
Aired July 30, 2008 - 20:00 ET
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: "Gloria, I want to start with you and pick up where we left off. We were talking about negative attacks by John McCain, whether they could potentially backfire. But address that as well, this issue of, you know, if things are not looking that great for McCain, why aren't we seeing a bounce for Obama?
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, first of all, let me point out, both of these folks are very well known. They're both celebrities. But we're not seeing a real bounce here, because if you look at the polls, what they show you is that voters in this country still question whether they can identify with Barack Obama's values and with his background.
That was a question that was asked in a "Wall Street Journal" poll. And that gives the key to voters. They're not totally comfortable with Barack Obama. They're not quite sure they know who he is. And it's John McCain's job to make them uncomfortable with Barack Obama, which is exactly what he's doing with this ad with Britney Spears.
He's trying to say the guy doesn't have enough experience to be president. He is a celebrity. He is cool. He gives great speeches, but trust me, because he's too much of a risk."
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0807/30/acd.02.html
ANDERSON COOPER 360 DEGREES
Campaigns Going Negative; Oil Drilling Debate; Tobacco Tough Talk; The Hillary Factor; Senator Stevens Back at Work; Is California Ready for the Big One?
Aired July 30, 2008 - 23:00 ET
DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: "But I want us to come back to this. Barack Obama is appearing more presidential. He appears more presidential. But being presidential also requires you to make tough choices and to put forward hard, substantive proposals.
And I think there are many people who support Obama who feel that he has not been substantive enough on this issue and on economic issues and on other issues. I do think in the next few weeks, even as he's bipartisan, he has to give us much more meat about what he would do as president and this is an issue on which he needs to speak more clearly and more substantively."
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109177/Gallup-Daily-Obama-45-McCain-44.aspx
July 31, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama 45%, McCain 44%
Race returns to statistical tie
PRINCETON, NJ -- "The race for the presidency has moved back into a statistical tie in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update of national registered voters, with Barack Obama now ahead of John McCain by just one percentage point, 45% to 44%..."
This is not good news for the Democrats. Obama's foreign trip bounce was very short-lived. I expected it not to last very long, but this is alarming.
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
a small town America trip could have resonated more right now, and I'm basically thinking in close up about the economy and the devastating effects it's having on so many Americans everyday now.
To many of those hurting-- the Victory Tower in Berlin and hundreds of thousands of Germans-- seem a distant and not too relevant scenario to their struggles. Filling up the tank and filling up their stomachs. Trying not to fall sick or miss that one payment that might bring the whole stack of cards tumbling down.
This is just guesswork on my part, but I do think the campaign might benefit from doing some intensive US cities and townships visits right now.... to get more deeply into the heart of the economic downturn kitchen table issues and how to resolve them. Something more up close and personal with Americans than mass rallies speeches. A real kitchen table chat...
Now msinla - that's NOT BO's style. If he couldn't chat at The Glider Diner in Scranton, he'll have a tough time at any kitchen/diner/restaurant table.
Hell, he had Bobby Casey (in Scranton, PA), where the Irish gift of gab is prevalent, and conversation just struggled. BO was SO OUT OF PLACE.
I'm surprised that anyone expected an uptick in the polls or in support for Obama based solely on an 8 day tour of 3 European countries and a quick fly-in to a couple of war zones. How in the world does that make one experienced in foreign policy? It was simply an opportunity for the American public (if they were watching at all) to see him fly around on his O-Force 1 and have a meeting with the leader of another country. How would that inspire confidence that he is a leader with experience enough to calm down the fires that we've set all over the world?
In the Gallup daily tracking poll, Obama's lead grew daily after few days of his tour from two points (45-43%) to nine (49-40%). It's back to one (45-44%). www.gallup.com
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
request the Democratic Party to seat Michigan and Florida delegations with full votes, let the Democratic Party Delegates decide who to nominate for the 2008 election, and only resume campaigning for 2008 if he wins the nomination in Denver.
That would take the pressure off him for a few weeks, prove that he is a true democrat, and astonish the media. Meanwhile McCain wouldn't know whom to run against, and all Dems would unite to campaign against him.
It would also show great courage on O's part, something he has so far failed to get associated with the O brand.
Then, if he were nominated, his victory would be far more inspiring than it now is, and many Dems who may currently be holding back their support would come forward to help him win in November.
Nick Kelly
Wes Clark could still secure America as a national security candidate.
Axelrod already ordered custom drapes!
They're just fetching... I think they have little Ma Bell logos hidden in the hems! Or was it a lightbulb?
The party would lose momentum going into the convention, the GOP would jump on it like a starving dog on a bone. Between now and the convention it would be a GOP and media frenzy on how the Democratic party is in disarray. It would bring back the primary infighting that is now starting to settle out. It would kneecap fundraising and election expenses.....
....and no matter what the end, there are people that would STILL not accept the results.
No, what you're suggesting isn't courage, it's political suicide for the entire party.
"I am asking you to come together and make sure Barack Obama is our next president. This is a critical mission." - Gen. Wes Clark
I jumped ship when they threw Wes under the bus. (I'm sure there's a joke somewhere in the combination of those transportation-based metaphors, but it's not coming to me at the moment.)
We learn. We change. That's progress. If we don't do that, well, we're GWB.
states in the question is Florida. Don't you think Democrats there would appreciate an Obama move to restore their delegates to full voting status?
The infighting is all part of a normal nominating procedure.
O was doing far better in the polls when there was active infighting. His balloon was sinking slowly then, but lately it seems to have sprung a larger leak.
The party would be re-invigorated by a fairly fought process that wasn't ended prematurely.
O's best interests would be served one way or another. He might risk losing the 2008 nomination, but he would gain new respect from millions of Democrats, as well as Independents and Republicans. That would eventually help him to win the Presidency.
Nick Kelly
Wes Clark could still secure America as a national security candidate.
I think the only hope now is if Obama somehow suddenly morphs into a candidate with some spine and gains some national security focus. To do that, he'd have to seriously pair up with the Hillary wing of the party. He's not going to do that, he's too damned arrogant, so we're doomed, or, rather, the Dems are doomed. (I'm no longer a part of that "we.") There's time for him to do the right thing, but I'm confident he won't.
We learn. We change. That's progress. If we don't do that, well, we're GWB.
move. You're also probably right that he will not try such.
Maybe it's karmic payback for JM? McCain's years as a POW yield him a very beatable Democratic opponent....
Or, this is what happens when Democrats cease to be democratic...
Nick Kelly
Wes Clark could still secure America as a national security candidate.
He has the nomination in the bag and is leading (but not by much) in the polls. This whole idea is a fantasy, and I don't know why we're spending any time on it.
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
Also, he does not have the nomination in the bag. The party is severely split, he is losing ground in the polls daily, and it will take a very bold move on his part to win the three states sam asked about.
I am spending time on this because I think counterintuitive moves have a potential place in every winning strategy, and because wild ideas sometimes prove to be catalysts for very workable ideas.
I suppose I could instead waste my time thinking, re-thinking and parsing conventional thoughts - but there are already way too many people doing that.
Nick Kelly
Wes Clark could still secure America as a national security candidate.
...but what Obama thinks. So I repeat the question with this emphasis, in Obama's head, why the hell would he do this?
Now back to the Rockies.
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
who also sells fake IDs, so maybe that's why I can't read anyone else's mind.
But it might be interesting to ask O that question.
Nick Kelly
Wes Clark could still secure America as a national security candidate.
leading in ALL the polls. USA Today/Gallup had McCain ahead in one of their many polls; others are statistical ties. He should be blowing McCain out of the water; can't figure out why people aren't asking WHY????
In times of war or peace, democracy requires dialogue, disagreement, and the courage to speak out. And those who do it should not be condemned but be praised." WKC
It's not the primaries now. We're less than 100 days from election day.
I wrote an article on just what would happen in such a situation. Let me recap two parts of it:
"Logistically, there would be no time for the new nominee to try and unify the party, behind the new nominee. There would be no time for fundraising, no time to put anything back together. DNC infrastructure that has been assembled since the primary would be disrupted and torn apart. Logically and financially, the Democratic party would be less than three months from election day, and be in complete and utter chaos. Not to mention financially broken."
"Meanwhile, the GOP would be having a field day with stories about Democratic chaos, and stolen elections. The corporate and right-wing media would be dusting off and using the narrative that the Clintons will "lie, cheat and steal" to win. The GOP base would be energized, and many who would have sat out the race would come in to vote against Sen. Clinton. To a lot of independents, this would prove the GOP narrative that the Democratic party is without ethics or principals. The GOP would play the race card even more to try and paint the Democratic party as racist. Expect lines like "See, the voters chose an African-American to be their nominee, and it was stolen from him! Can any minority trust them now?""
That's just two of the problems in a faithless delegate situation.
I understand why you feel the way you do. But this close to election day, it would be chaos and political suicide.
"I am asking you to come together and make sure Barack Obama is our next president. This is a critical mission." - Gen. Wes Clark
yet many of his supporters said it would be unfair for him to not have Michigan delegates.
Your suggestion that it would be seen as unfair for him to voluntarily suspend his campaign - and to subsequently fail to be nominated - is a parallel line of weird thinking.
Nick Kelly
Wes Clark could still secure America as a national security candidate.
It's a question of logistics.
And it has NOTHING to do with Michigan or anything else in the primaries.
It has to do with fundraising and campaigning for the general election Suspending a campaign - any campaign - at this stage spikes all fundraising and momentum.
Remember when Ross Perot ran, dropped out, and then went back in. He lost a large percentage of supporters during that period he was out of the race, and lost momentum he never regained.
Suspending a campaign at this point is pretty much dropping out of the race. In addition, any nominee that tried to pick up would be severely hobbled by suspension of fundraising as well.
And meanwhile, what do you think the GOP and the talking heads at Fox and in the MSN would be doing? Sitting nicely and fairly? Oh hell no. It would be a constant stream of "party in disarray" and "if they can't even pick a nominee, how can they be expected to lead the country?"
Logisically, it's pretty much handing the election to the GOP and going "Here, we didn't want the White House anyway"
"Meanwhile, the GOP would be having a field day with stories about Democratic chaos, and stolen elections. The corporate and right-wing media would be dusting off and using the narrative that the Clintons will "lie, cheat and steal" to win. The GOP base would be energized, and many who would have sat out the race would come in to vote against Sen. Clinton. To a lot of independents, this would prove the GOP narrative that the Democratic party is without ethics or principals. The GOP would play the race card even more to try and paint the Democratic party as racist. Expect lines like "See, the voters chose an African-American to be their nominee, and it was stolen from him! Can any minority trust them now?""
Sorry, Patrick, but you can't have it both ways.
Nick Kelly
Wes Clark could still secure America as a national security candidate.
....involved in suspending the campaign. Not a "Faithless Delegate" situation
The quote of mine you site was for a "Faithless Delegate" situation in which the primaries were overturned and Sen. Obama was removed as nominee.
Suspending the campaign would have a far more reduced social impact than a faithless delegate situation, and might not affect the downstream races as badly, but the loss of momentum, logistical problems, and fundraising problems would be a campaign killer to the presidential side of the picture.
Apples and oranges. If I had felt the social impact would be the same as a "faithless delegate" situation, I would have commented on that as well. Sorry Nick, those are two different situations.
"I am asking you to come together and make sure Barack Obama is our next president. This is a critical mission." - Gen. Wes Clark
I have to preface my reply by saying that I'm in a bitchy mood after John Kerry put Wes back under the bus on "Meet the Press" this morning, with the help of Tom Brokaw, who for some completely unknown reason felt motivated to ask about Wes's "Face the Nation" comment.
Anyway, neither Democratic candidate was able to gain a solid majority among Democrats. And for the same reason, I'm not sure either can beat McCain in the general election.
Bah, humbug.
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
have a different strategy. There was an article (sorry don't remember where) a while back about a Power Point presentation given to big donors by the O! campaign. They aren't counting on the battleground states. To make up for possibly losing those states....they are/were planning on registering more African American voters in Georgia and hoping to take Georgia. Perhaps some other southern states the same thing. They're hoping for some states in the west....NV, CO and MT (this one is hard to say with a straight face cuz I live so close and understand the polics therein) off the top of my head.
Super Delegates and big donors seem to have bought into the strategy so I don't see why we should worry about it. I know I won't.
Poll: Obama narrowly leads McCain nationally
By The Associated Press – 1 day agoTHE RACE: The presidential race nationally
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THE NUMBERS
Barack Obama, 51 percent
John McCain, 44 percent
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OF INTEREST:
This survey, taken after Obama's high-profile trip to Iraq, Afghanistan, the Middle East and Europe, shows him with about the same lead he had last month. It also shows little change since the spring in the faith people have in Obama to handle the Iraq war, terrorism and other issues. People thought his trip was appropriate by a two-to-one margin. More than four in 10 say they think Obama is acting like he's already won the election, and nearly that many say McCain is attacking him unfairly. Just over a third think both are arrogant. Obama leads McCain by 46 percent to 42 percent when third-party candidates are included, with Ralph Nader getting 6 percent and Bob Barr, a former GOP congressman from Georgia running for president as a Libertarian, getting 3 percent.
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The CNN-Opinion Research Corp. poll was conducted from July 27-29. It included telephone interviews with 914 registered voters and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
COMPLETE RESULTS: http://www.cnn.com
Nader's at 6%.... with virtually no MSM coverage at all. :X
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. ~Gloria Steinem
I think Wes has been right all along. We need the Democratic Party to be a full-service party before these swing states will elect them.
This is what I think Obama needs to do:
1) Tackle national security. Show that his team has better ideas than the Republicans. Embrace "when you can do good, you should" and "force is a last, last, last resort." Start every speech with that. Bring out the national security expert Democrats and be seen with at least one of them at all times. He should never travel anywhere, never be seen on TV or in a photo, without a national security expert by his side.
2) Move back to the left on social issues to energize his base and to assure them that focusing on national security is not counter to all they believe in.
We learn. We change. That's progress. If we don't do that, well, we're GWB.